Karnaukhov A.V. ("The role of Biosphere in the Formation of Earth Climate. A
Greenhouse Catastrophe", Biophysics, Vol. 46, No. 6, 2001, pp 1138-1121) :
There are many processes both in animated and in
inanimated nature which affect chemical composition of the atmosphere
and the temperature balance of the Earth. Analysis of the
processes involved gives strong evidence that there are no
biospheric mechanisms for effective carbon dioxide expelling
from the atmosphere. Moreover, in inanimated nature there are
some potentially dangerous sources of CO 2 which could be
activated in the result of the Earth's average temperature increase.
Chemical composition of the atmosphere can not be maintained
stable due to natural supporting systems because the human
activity destroyed climate-forming biocenosis processes. In turn, after
chemical composition of the atmosphere having been destroyed, the
concentration of hothouse gases, CO 2 and H 2 O, would begin to rise
in an uncontrolled way. The respective changes in the Earth's climate,
including average planetary temperature increasing up to 100 - 1500
degrees C, would make the life on the planet impossible (at least,
in its current form). A radiative-adiabatic model of the hothouse
effect allows asymptotic estimates to be obtained in a wide range
of hothouse gases concentration variability and the
Earth's average temperature changes. Based on the
radiative-adiabatic model of the hothouse effect an integral model
is given for the Earth's climate changes which takes into account
thermal inertia of oceans and aerosol pollution of the upper layers
of the atmosphere. An inevitable, catastrophic Earth's climate
change (hothouse catastrophe) is shown to be able to happen in
a relatively near future, in some 200 - 300 years.
On the picture you see Temperature
vs years.
Hothouse Catastrophe
lex Karnauhov
Karnaukhov A.V. "The role of Biosphere in the Formation of Earth Climate. AGreenhouse Catastrophe", Biophysics, Vol. 46, No. 6, 2001, pp 1138-1121.
Translated by Nataliya Lipunova
